Innovation using TechCast Technology Forecasting Research Method

Within 15 years, I see embedded RFID technology being in almost every product made. The industrial age of tracking everything made is a means for businesses to know where inventory is during production, after shipment, and where merchandise ends up. This will give greater flexibility to pinpoint areas where high sales volumes are more common.
One method that can be used as a starting point is a version of the Delphi Method called ‘The TechCast Technology Forecasting Research Method.’ This method is similar to the Delhi, but incorporates a five phase approach to forecasting. Researcher would scan available sources such as scientific literature on RFID technologies, media, Internet, possibly conduct interviews, and use other available other sources to accumulate sufficient background information on the use of RFID tagging. Once the information gathering phase is over, an analysis of the information is done by organizing the information scanned into some logical model that includes a detailed summary, forecast data, event to be forecast, and trends opposing and driving the technology. “The analyses are considered especially valuable because they summarize the best available knowledge on any technology in a convenient format” (Linstone & Turoff, 1975).

TechCast Technology uses more experts than the Delphi method and focus on the technology being forecasted. Once the experts provide their opinion on the topic, the results are organized by Most Likely Year the technology will reach the level specified adoption level, Market Size of the technology when it matures, and the Experts’ Confidence in the forecast. Data is presented in such a way as to make the analysis easy to read and understand. The final phase consists of an interative approach to review the information for changes in the research or technology so as to provide annual furcating updates which will provide a more accurate timeline on when the technology will come to fruition.

Of course with any new technology come forces that will help the technology move along and those that will impede the process. RFID technology is already being used in warehouses and by companies such as FedEx and UPS to track shipment of material and this will most likely support the forecasting efforts because there will be some historical information to show it does work. Another supporting factor is that businesses want to keep track of their inventory and will adapt to any new advances. Factors that could impede RFID technology research which could keep it out of the mainstream consumer area is the high cost which would carry over into the cost of goods and social acceptance. The general consumer may not be willing to have material purchased be tracked to their home. In many it may be viewed as an ‘Invasion of Privacy.’

Open collaboration would allow everyone interested in making RFID a reality a chance to provide information that will make this a reality.

References:

http://www.techcast.org/methodology.aspx.
Linstone, H., Turoff, M. (1975).The Delphi Method. Addison-Wesley.