Technology's Promise Small Aircraft Prediction

William Halal presents a myriad of forecasts in the book Technology’s Promise. One that caught my eye is small aircraft. In the book, Halal (p. 88, 2008) predicted that small aircraft will account for 30% of all air travel by 2025. Although I am seeing more people purchase small planes, the average person cannot afford to buy a plane at the suggested $150K price Halal predicted. The price of fuel is more than $10 for a short trip. As of Mar 2011 the price of jet fuel was hovering around $2.75/gallon which is less than the cost of gasoline, but in the long run is more expensive that regular gasoline. Most people do not live within 30 minutes of an airport, so the prediction is on the low side. Another consideration that is not mentioned is safety inspections before departure. If not done, the risk of engine or other failure is likely.
Halal mentioned that people could land the aircraft in their back yard and then fly to work and land in the parking lot. I think this is a little farfetched. With the way housing subdivisions are being built today and the increase in population, I do not see this as a viable prediction.

Additionally, the prediction that small aircraft will account for 30% of travel (Halal, p.88, 2008) is a little alarming. In an eleven month span from 2008 to 2009, approximately 718 million passengers traveled on domestic flights. Assuming the average passenger was traveling in groups of 2, shifting this traffic to small aircraft (which typically can only carry 2 passengers) would put an additional 108 million flights annually. That equates to approximately ten times the current number of domestic flights. Halal’s belief that technology will overcome this is admirable but misplaced. Even if the technology is available, it is unlikely to be in place. The average age of small aircraft in the U.S. is approximately 25-30 years. The majority of these aircraft still uses analog instruments, GPS, or other technology of the past decade installed. Based on this track record, it seems unrealistic to believe they would receive the technology necessary for “free flight” in the next decade.

One must also consider the risk of mechanical or electrical failure. Will there be floating skyways that people can and on in case of emergency? What about bad judgment? People on the ground cause accidents daily by not paying attention. Imagine what it would be like in the air. There will small aircraft parts falling to the ground possibly injuring innocent people. The insurance companies would also have a file day. Rates would be high which would further the distance for an average person to be able to afford a small aircraft. I believe Halal’s prediction is doable, but not in the timeline predicted. It will take many more years to create the infrastructure and laws to govern additional aircraft.


Reference:

Halal, W. E. (2008). Technology’s Promise.p.86-88. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.